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April’s Payroll Jolt, Because Unprecedented Number of Workers Just Quit?

April 2021’s payroll estimate (CES) was the “bad” one; at a revised +278,000 it was “supposed” to have been significantly better than the “good” one for March (+785,000, revised). Near three hundred...

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Another Labor Divide

A lot of American workers still quit their jobs in May, just fewer than the huge burst who had during April. We don’t know why, of course, and the BLS JOLTS data isn’t going to tell us. Nor will it...

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Turning The LABOR SHORTAGE Up to 11

In Massachusetts, the Federal Reserve’s First District, restaurateurs have struggled mightily to find workers. As part of the central bank’s Beige Book, one contact of the Boston leadership said the...

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Taper Math, Lazy Labor Slander

The number of Job Openings for the month of July were revised upward, the BLS now thinking there had been more than 11 million of them during that month. Companies seem to be desperate for workers, at...

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Weekly Market Pulse: Growth Scare?

A couple of weeks ago the 10-year Treasury note yield rose 16 basis points in the course of 5 trading days. That move was driven by near-term inflation fears as I discussed last week. Long-term...

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Inflation Just Doesn’t Pass Math

For the first time since last December, the level of Job Openings (JO) pictured by the BLS’s JOLTS survey declined. End of the line for the economy?I am intentionally overselling this monthly minus....

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A Global JOLT(s) In July

The Bureau Labor Statistics reported today another huge month for Job Openings (JO). According to their methodology (which I still believe is flawed, but that’s not our focus this time), the level for...

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How Many More Americans Might Have Quit Their Jobs Than The Huge Number...

There were a few surprises included in the BLS JOLTS data just released today for the month of November (note: the government has changed its release schedule so that JOLTS, already one month further...

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Pay Attention

Benchmark revisions have visited the BLS JOLTS survey, too. And yes, they’ve been smoothed. To that end, the hawkishly-watched Job Openings (JO) trend has been altered. Before this week’s release, JO...

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JOLTS Three (Data) Body Problem

Though labor data, like the market it measures, is a lagging macro indicator, there’s some use in closely tracking any changes to it. Financial markets may send out profound warning signals, as they...

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